Last Friday, I was talking about an economist survey suggesting...

Last Friday, I was talking about an economist survey suggesting treasury yields were heading North. This is what I wrote in Huge Treasury Rally Underway: Where To From Here? BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Last Friday, I was talking about an economist survey suggesting treasury yields were heading North. This is what I wrote in I am amazed by that survey. What the heck are those economists possibly thinking? Stranger things have happened I suppose, but that is an extremely poor bet. In fact, if jobs come in exceptionally week, 10 year yields could drop to 3.75 or so. It would take a huge jobs number to cause a treasury selloff like that predicted by the economists survey. In addition, mortgage rates will soar should that happen. It is always dangerous to make specific predictions in a specific timeframe but I am going to give it a shot. The line in blue is what I think the curve will look like if the next jobs report comes in weak. . I took another look at the curve near the close. Here it is. To make things line up visually I am putting it in blockquotes even though I am not quoting anything. No, I did not expect this in a week let alone one trading day. However, we are where we are and if jobs are weak we could see 30 year yields below 4. I am not calling for that now, but I do expect it sometime next year. One thing this highlights: Surprises are most often in the direction of the prevailing trend. In this case, the trend is towards lower yields. As an aside, anyone who thinks this action portends rising inflation expectations must be reading the The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.